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Global ad spend to grow to $502bn in 2012

Global ad expenditure will hit $502bn by the end of 2012, according to ZenithOptimedia’s latest Advertising Expenditure Forecast, representing an increase of 4.3% on last year.

Uncertainty of the stability of the Eurozone precipitated by the Greek debt crisis resulted in a slower ad market in April and May causing the original estimate of 4.8% to be downgraded. Despite this temporary slowdown, major events such as the UEFA Euro 2012 tournament, the London Olympic and Paralympic Games and the US elections in November are expected to accelerate ad expenditure by the end of the year.

ZenithOptimedia’s forecasts for 2013 and 2014 remain unchanged at 5.3% and 6.1% growth respectively.

By medium, all forms of advertising with the exception of newspapers and magazines, are expected to grow steadily between now and 2014. The largest growth area will be in online advertising but television will still take the lion’s share of global ad spend, with approximately 40% every year for the next three years.

The top three markets in 2011 were the US ($154bn), Japan ($50bn) and China ($32bn). The top 10 ad markets are expected to remain fairly consistent until 2014, when Brazil will have overtaken the UK to be the fifth largest spender and Russia will have claimed the number ten spot, knocking South Korea off the list.

Developing markets are also set to increase their share of the global ad market from 32.8% to 26.7% over the next three years.

The ZenithOptimedia Advertising Expenditure Forecast brings together insights from the group's agencies across 79 markets. Factors considered include how much clients are spending, what is being spent with particular media owners and local events that affect the media landscape including new TV channels launching and newspaper closures.

David Hing, London