Global ad revenues will grow by 3.9% this year to $519bn, according to Magna Globals latest report on the worldwide advertising market.
IPG Mediabrands-owned Magna forecasts cover 73 countries and include paid and free TV, online, mobile, newspaper, magazines, radio, cinema and out-of-home media.
This years growth forecast is lower than the previous (+4.8% in December 2014) and represents a slowdown from 2014 (+4.9%).
The nearly one-point slowdown in growth in 2015 can largely be attributed to the absence of even-year drivers that generate extra ad spend, including Olympic Games, US elections and FIFA World Cups.
Underlying growth for 2015 is similar to last years, consistent with a global world economic output that is expected to be similar to last years (+3.5% versus +3.4% according to IMF WEO April 2015).
Of the 73 countries analysed in this update, 70 are expected to show some advertising growth and only three Russia, Croatia, Finland are forecast to see a decrease.
However, Magna is reducing its 2015 growth forecast in 54 of the 73 markets.
The bulk of the downgrade (0.9% lower from the previous forecast in December 2014) is attributable to three large markets: Russia (-11%, contribution to global slowdown -0.2%), Brazil (+4.4% down from +5.9%, contribution -0.2%) and the US (from +2.7% to +1.6%, contributing -0.4%).
Emerging markets continue to drive global growth (+8%) while mature developed markets show very modest growth rates (+2.5%). Magna has also slightly reduced its forecast for China (+8.1%, previously +8.6%) and Canada (+2.7%, previously +3.4%).
On the other hand, 19 markets see higher 2015 growth forecasts than previously predicted.
The biggest upward revisions among large markets come, Spain (+8.6%, previously +5.6%) and the UK (+5.6%, previously +4.7%). In those markets, ad spend has been even more dynamic than expected in the beginning of the year, leading Magna to increase its full year growth forecast.
Other markets growing faster than expected include France (from -1.1% to +0.3%) and Japan (from +2.7% to +3.4%).
According to Vincent Letang, Magnas director of global forecasting and author of the report: 2015 is a tipping point in the long-term shift from traditional to digital media. Last years global advertising growth was the combination of digital media growing +18.5% while traditional media revenues were essentially flat (+0.5%).
This year, traditional media ad revenues will decrease globally (-0.8%) for the first time since the 2008-2009 recession, as low growth of television and out-of-home ad sales will no longer offset the fast decline of print (-6.5%), challenged by a diversified family of digital media categories (+15.9%).
Beyond the slowdown caused by the absence of global events in 2015, we believe digital media has reached a stage and critical where it starts to compete more directly with traditional TV budgets.
Related Stories:
Programmatic TV spending to increase to $10bn by 2019
Global ad revenues to grow 4.8% in 2015, as digital closes the gap on TV
Programmatic to reach $21bn globally in 2014
